As you know, the NFL season is quickly approaching which means fantasy football is right around the corner. The one goal of every fantasy season is to win and the best way to do that is to open your season with a favorable draft, More specifically avoiding busts, and targeting guys who can surpass their projected output. In rounds 1 and 2 you are given 2 decisions that will ultimately have the most extreme effect on how your season goes. To show where players are usually going and whether or not I agree, I will be using ESPN'S PPR pre-draft rankings and assuming you are in a standard league.
Round 1:
Best Pick: Austin Ekeler, Avg pick 4th
Austin Ekeler finished as the overall RB2 in fantasy last year. He was a threat on the ground and through the air averaging 5.9 targets a game which was 3rd amongst running backs, only behind Leonard Fournette and D'Andre Swift. He had over 1500 yards from scrimmage and had 20 touchdowns to add to his phenomenal production, The Chargers have a balanced offense and their offensive line is one of the top run blocking lines in the league. His ceiling is the RB2 and being drafted 4th is a steal.
Worst Pick: Deebo Samuel, Avg pick 12th
It seems easy to pick the last pick in the first round as the worst but in this case, it's true. Deebo Samuel is a talented yards-after-the-catch magician, making him a threat in the run and the passing game. Although that all sounds great, the risk of taking him at 12 far outweighs his Average Draft Position. It's no secret Trey Lance will be the guy at the helm, which means he's in a different spot than he was last year. Will he be Trey Lance's favorite target? Will Deebo's hybrid back role stay intact? He played out of his mind last year but there is no guarantee his level of play is maintained with a different QB to catch passes from. Consider Stefon Diggs (ADP 13th) and Ceedee Lamb (ADP 16th).
Round 2:
Best Pick: D'Andre Swift, Avg Pick 15th
D'Andre Swift underperformed last year, between injuries and playing for the woeful Detroit Lions. Despite this, he is being picked in the early second and I can't get enough of him in drafts. He led the league in Targets Per Game for a running back and is playing behind one of the best lines in football. The Lions offense should improve, as guys like Jameson Williams should help give the offense a boost. This should propel the 23-year-old into fantasy super-stardom.
Worst Pick: Javonte Williams, Avg Pick 20th
Javonte Williams burst onto the scene last year and did nothing but impress. With that being said, his price is simply too high. He’s sharing carries with Melvin Gordon who has been nothing worth raving over since his Chargers days. Yet here we are with the backfield set to be split once again. Despite the Broncos offense greatly improving with the addition of Russel Wilson, the re-addition of Melvin Gordon puts a serious ceiling on his fantasy output. Consider Aaron Jones (ADP 23rd) or Nick Chubb (ADP 33rd).
With these suggestions, you can put yourself in a position to be ahead of your league mates. Let your friends make the mistake of reaching for Deebo Samuel and Javonte Williams, and try your hardest to land either Austin Ekeler or D'Andre Swift.